آثار الحرب

يمكن أن يؤدي تدمير البنية التحتية إلى انهيار كارثي في ​​النسيج الاجتماعي المترابط، وخدمات البنية التحتية، ونظام التعليم والرعاية الصحية. ^{[ 20 ]} وقد أدى تدمير المدارس والبنية التحتية التعليمية إلى تراجع مستوى التعليم في العديد من البلدان المتضررة من الحروب. ^{[ 6 ]} وإذا تضررت أو دُمرت بعض عناصر البنية التحتية بشكل كبير، فقد يتسبب ذلك في اضطراب خطير في الأنظمة الأخرى، كالاقتصاد. ^{[ 20 ]} ويشمل ذلك فقدان بعض طرق النقل في المدينة، مما قد يجعل الاقتصاد عاجزًا عن العمل بشكل سليم. فعلى سبيل المثال، غالبًا ما تدمر الفصائل المتحاربة الجسور لعزل نفسها عن المهاجمين، مما يخلق عوائق أمام حركة السكان على المدى القصير (إجلاء المدنيين) وعلى المدى الطويل، بمجرد إعادة رسم خطوط السيطرة.

اعتبارًا من عامي 2023/2024، شهدنا آثار تدمير البنية التحتية في مناطق مثل غزة، حيث دُمرت مبانٍ مثل مكاتب الأمم المتحدة والمدارس والمستشفيات والمخابز والطرق. ^{[ 21 ]} وقد أدى ذلك إلى مجاعة جماعية بين سكان غزة، وزيادة في الأمراض، وتراجع في التعليم، وفي نهاية المطاف إلى تهجير الفلسطينيين قسرًا. ^{[ 22 ]}

تتغير القوى العاملة في الاقتصاد أيضاً بتأثيرات الحرب. وتتأثر هذه القوى العاملة بطرق متعددة، غالباً بسبب الخسائر الفادحة في الأرواح، والتغيرات السكانية، وتقلص حجم القوى العاملة نتيجة لحركة اللاجئين والنزوح، وتدمير البنية التحتية، مما يؤدي بدوره إلى تدهور الإنتاجية . ^{[ 23 ]}

When men head off to war, women take over the jobs they left behind. This causes an economic shift in certain countries because after the war these women usually want to keep their jobs. The shortage of labor force during the Iran–Iraq War enabled women to enter fields of employment that had previously been closed to them and absorbed them into a large number of much-needed jobs. In Women and Work in Iran, Povey points, "The Iran–Iraq war reduced the supply of male labor is one factor. The war increased the number of women seeking work or resisting exclusion. Many women even occupied important positions for the first time".^[24] This can also be seen in the Second Liberian Civil War, and in the Rwandan genocide.^[25][26] Women in both conflicts took over their husbands' jobs due to the effects of the war, and received more economic equality as a result.^[25][26]

Displacement or forced migration results most often during a time of war and can adversely affect both the community and an individual. When a war breaks out, many people flee their homes in fear of losing their lives and their families, and as a result, they become misplaced either internally or externally.^[33] Those who are internally displaced face a direct threat because they do not receive the rights that a refugee may receive and are not eligible for protection under an international system.^[34] Victims of internal displacements are symptoms of war that are often motivated by communal hatred based on ethnic background, race, or religious views.^[33] External displacement are individuals who are forced out of the borders of their country into another as seen with the Syrian Refugees. The following may have a severe economic impact on a country.

In 2015, 53 percent of refugees worldwide originated from Somalia, Afghanistan, and Syria.^[33] In a Global Trends Report by the UNHRC, approximately 65 million people around the world have been forced from their home.^[33] Out of this number, 21.3 million are refugees, over half of the demographic under the age of 18.^[33] Some of the top countries absorbing these displaced peoples are Pakistan (1.6 million), Lebanon (1.1 million), and Turkey (2.5 million). In times of violence, people are displaced from their homes and seek places where they are welcome, periodically meeting places they are not welcome.

In response to an influx of refugees and asylum seekers from countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sri Lanka, Australia initiated a controversial plan in 2001 titled the Pacific Solution which called for all asylum seekers arriving by boat to be sent to the small and barren island Nauru.^[35] Asylum seekers were housed in crowded tents and lived under a constant threat of running out of resources, especially water.^[35] Individuals were kept in the detention center until their refugee status was granted or denied.^[35] Chris Evans, former immigration minister stated the Pacific Solution as being "a cynical, costly and ultimately unsuccessful exercise", and was ended under a newly elected Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in 2007.^[36] In February 2008, after the Pacific Solution was ended, the final members of a group of 82 refugees detained on Nauru were granted residency rights and resettled in Australia according to a humanitarian resettlement program.^[36]

In the case of the Sri Lankan Civil War, displacement had a high chance to impoverish those affected, but women and children were found to be the most vulnerable to the burden of displacement.^[37] A Sri Lankan female head of household earns less than a household that has a male head. After men and women became displaced, however, females lost 76% of their income and males lost 80%.^[37] While the lost income is within a relatively close percentage, females were more likely, on average, to fall below the official poverty line.^[37] Male households by comparison were able to stay above the line even after becoming displaced. In a post-displacement setting, male headed households had more earned income than female headed households.^[37] Males benefit from manual labor, carpentry, masonry, and government services while females had earned their income from informal work. Informal work for females is more difficult in a post-displacement setting where they do not have access to the same tools as they did pre-displacement.

عانى الشعب الفلسطيني من النزوح نتيجةً للصراع المسلح والاحتلال العسكري. وحدثت أكبر موجة نزوح بسبب الحرب عام 1947، بعد موافقة الأمم المتحدة على تقسيم فلسطين إلى دولتين. ثم اتخذت إسرائيل قرارًا بمنع اللاجئين الفلسطينيين من العودة إلى أراضيهم إلا في حالة لم شمل الأسرة. ^{[ 38 ]} ويعيش ما يقرب من ثلث اللاجئين الفلسطينيين المسجلين، أي أكثر من 1.5 مليون شخص، في 58 مخيمًا معترفًا بها للاجئين الفلسطينيين في الأردن ولبنان والجمهورية العربية السورية وقطاع غزة والضفة الغربية، بما فيها القدس الشرقية . ^{[ 39 ]} وبحلول ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2023، تشير التقديرات إلى نزوح 1.9 مليون فلسطيني داخل قطاع غزة دون وجود مناطق آمنة متاحة للنزوح إليها. ^{[ 22 ]}

تُعدّ الخدمة العسكرية في القتال عامل خطر للإصابة باضطراب ما بعد الصدمة (PTSD). ^{[ 40 ]} حوالي 78% من الأشخاص الذين يتعرضون للقتال لا يُصابون باضطراب ما بعد الصدمة؛ وفي حوالي 25% من العسكريين الذين يُصابون به، يتأخر ظهوره. ^{[ 40 ]}

يُعدّ اللاجئون أكثر عرضةً للإصابة باضطراب ما بعد الصدمة نتيجةً لتعرضهم للحرب والمصاعب والأحداث الصادمة. وتتراوح معدلات الإصابة بهذا الاضطراب بين اللاجئين من 4% إلى 86%. ^{[ 41 ]} وبينما تؤثر ضغوط الحرب على جميع الأطراف المعنية، فقد أظهرت الدراسات أن النازحين يتأثرون بها أكثر من غيرهم. ^{[ 42 ]}

تتسم التحديات المتعلقة بالرفاه النفسي والاجتماعي العام للاجئين بالتعقيد والاختلافات الفردية. يعاني اللاجئون من انخفاض في مستويات الرفاه وارتفاع في معدلات الضيق النفسي نتيجة للصدمات السابقة والمستمرة. ومن بين الفئات الأكثر تضررًا والتي غالبًا ما تبقى احتياجاتها غير مُلبّاة: النساء وكبار السن والقاصرون غير المصحوبين بذويهم. ^{[ 43 ]} كما يؤثر اضطراب ما بعد الصدمة والاكتئاب لدى اللاجئين سلبًا على تحصيلهم الدراسي. ^{[ 43 ]}

لقد خلّف الصراع الإسرائيلي الفلسطيني الطويل الأمد معاناة اجتماعية ونفسية كبيرة لدى جميع الأطراف المعنية. وقد أدلى العديد من أفراد جيش الدفاع الإسرائيلي بتصريحات حول حالتهم النفسية بعد ارتكابهم أعمال عنف ضدّ المدنيين العُزّل. أما بالنسبة للفلسطينيين، فقد تأثر معظمهم من الشباب والأطفال نتيجة لهذا الصراع الممتد. ^{[ 44 ]}

In times when a country is in an economic crisis there is an increase in poverty which results in the decline of education.^[6] Over half of the world's children that are out of school are forced to live in conflict-affected fragile states.^[45] According to the UNESCO report "The groups most negatively affected by conflict were those that suffered from multiple exclusion, for example based on gender, area of residence, household wealth, language, and ethnicity".^[45] One predominantly damaging, effect of conflict on education is the proliferation of attacks on schools with children, teachers and school buildings become the targets of violence.^[45] During times of war teachers and students often suffer from death or displacement. This prevents the opening of schools and increases teachers' absenteeism. In the case of Iraq, boys were pulled out of school to work for their families, and therefore the education gap for men and women shrank.^[6]

Conflict negatively impacts women and men, which often results in gender-specific difficulties that are not recognized or addressed by mainstream communities across the globe (Baden and Goetz, 1997). War impacts women differently as they are more likely to die from indirect causes as opposed to direct causes. "Women and girls suffered disproportionately during and after war, as existing inequalities were magnified, and social networks broke down, making them more vulnerable to sexual violence and exploitation, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations".^[46] Men during war are more likely to die from direct causes such as direct violence.^[7] In many countries females are not looked upon as being equal to males. Males are seen as the dominant gender and therefore women are to be obedient to them. "Rape is seen as motivated by a universal male tendency towards indiscriminate violence against women and a generalized masculine desire to maintain a system of control over all women; a continuous process of intimidation by which all men keep all women in a state of fear" (Alison, 2009)^[47] The Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action named women and armed conflict as one of the most critical areas of concern. It stated that peace is directly linked to equality between men and women and to development post conflict (Beijing Platform for Action). Plumper found that most women live longer when they are in peacetime, when compared to a state that is in armed conflict the gender gap of life expectancy drastically decreases in the male to female ratio.^[7]

The indirect effects of militarized conflicts' affect access to food, hygiene, health services, and clean water. Women suffer more harshly from the damage to the health as well as overall well-being, other infrastructure damages, and the wider economic damage as well as from dislocation during and post-conflict.^[7] During a time of war women are often separated from their husbands or lose them as a cost of war. Because of this, there is a dramatic economic cost effect on women causing many to bear the entire economic responsibility for their household.^[48]

There are many effects of war on women – emotionally, socially and physically. One effect can be the disruption of the family unit due to males entering the military during a conflict. This military enrollment has both an emotional and social effect on the women left behind. Because of that enrollment, women can be forced into roles that they are not used to – entering the workforce, providing for their families, and taking on other traditional male roles. Rape of women and girls was mentioned above and can have both physical and emotional effects. Unfortunately, there has been lack of accurate data on the number of rape victims. There are a few reasons for this – women are afraid to report the rape due to fear of retaliation or how they may be viewed by society, while others may falsely report rape for increases in government support and services.^[49]

Lastly, women might not report rape because of the lack of prosecution and actual convictions of the attackers. Prosecution can become difficult due to the lack of evidence and the political justice system itself. The film "The Prosecutors" highlighted how hard it is to prosecute wartime criminals and the danger that the victims and the prosecutors are in when facing them. The film focuses on three countries – The Democratic Republic of Congo, Columbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the sexual war crimes committed, and how difficult the prosecution process is in those countries.^[50]

من أبرز ممارسات الاحتلال العسكري الإسرائيلي بناء جدار الفصل العنصري ، وتشريد السكان، وهدم المنازل جراء القصف، لا سيما في غزة. وتترتب على ذلك آثار وخيمة على الرجال والنساء. فمع ازدياد النزاعات الزوجية بعد هدم المنازل، تُجبر النساء على البحث عن عمل لإعالة أسرهن. ^{[ 51 ]} كما يشهد العالم ارتفاعًا ملحوظًا في العنف المنزلي، ما يزيد من ضعف النساء. ^{[ 6 ]} ويعجز الفلسطينيون، ولا سيما النساء، عن الحصول على الخدمات الأساسية، ما يُعرّضهم للإساءة والمعاناة اليومية أثناء عبورهم نقاط التفتيش الإسرائيلية للحصول على هذه الخدمات. ^{[ 51 ]}

تساهم الحروب في تدهور البيئة بطريقتين رئيسيتين. الأولى هي الآثار المباشرة المتمثلة في القضاء على الكائنات الحية المحلية ، والثانية هي الآثار غير المباشرة المتمثلة في حرمان الأنواع من الموارد اللازمة لبقائها، أو حتى من موائلها بالكامل. ^{[ 52 ]} أما بالنسبة للبشر، فقد أثار استخدام الجيش الأمريكي لليورانيوم المنضب خلال حرب الخليج مزاعم بأن اليورانيوم المنضب المترسب كان سببًا في تفشي السرطان في المناطق الجنوبية من العراق . علاوة على ذلك، وبسبب ترخيص الحكومة الأمريكية لمبيد الأعشاب السام "العميل البرتقالي" خلال حرب فيتنام، تُقدّر الحكومة الفيتنامية أن 400 ألف فيتنامي لقوا حتفهم أو أصيبوا بإعاقات نتيجة استخدامه، وأن 200 ألف آخرين يعانون من السرطان، وأن 500 ألف ولدوا بتشوهات خلقية مرتبطة به. ^{[ 53 ]}

During a war, cultural assets are threatened with destruction, confiscation, looting and robbery.^[54]Cultural heritage can be archaeological finds, excavation sites, archives, libraries, museums and monuments that are sometimes simply vandalized or stolen by warring parties in order to finance the war. During the Second World War in particular, Nazi Germany also stole art objects in large parts of Europe. And even if there are international legal regulations, they are often not complied with.^[55][56][57] In addition to the human suffering caused by war and armed conflict, around three quarters of all man-made cultural assets and thus the testimonies and evidence of human creativity were destroyed in this way. In contrast, only about a quarter of all cultural assets have been destroyed by natural disasters or have permanently disappeared due to normal deterioration.^[58] According to Karl von Habsburg, founding president of Blue Shield International, the destruction of cultural goods is also part of psychological warfare, because the target of the attack is the identity of the opponent, which is why symbolic cultural goods become a main target.^[59][60][61]

Political scientist Jeffrey Herbst argues that interstate war is a requisite factor in the formation of strong states.^[63] Using Europe's history of state formation as his model, Herbst identifies interstate war as the factor that enabled states to effectively collect revenue and to generate a spirit of nationalism, two results that Herbst considers "crucial developments" in the formation of strong states.^[63]:118 War increases both a leader's incentive to establish an efficient system of taxation and the population's willingness to assent to higher taxes.^{[63]:119–21} The existence of an external threat is also a powerful impetus for the development of a cooperative or unified state.^[63]:122 Because the system of revenue collection, increased rate of taxation, and spirit of nationalism generally persist after war ends, war can have long-term consequences on a state's formation.^[63]:121–2 This is particularly true of states in regions or periods of consistent warfare because states generally either adapted or were conquered.^[63]:120 Herbst postulates that the stability of borders and lack of credible external threats between African states could result in "a new brand of states", those that will "remain permanently weak".^[63]:119

Charles Tilly, an American sociologist, political scientist, and historian, claims that within the context of European history, "war makes states".^[64] While the purposes of war were to expand territory and to check or overcome neighboring states, the process of war inadvertently engendered European-style state-building. War making resulted in state making in four ways:^[64]

1. War making that culminated in the elimination of local rivals gave rise to one centralized, coercive strong state power that had a large-scale monopoly on violence.
2. Eventually, this large-scale monopoly on violence held by the state was extended to serve the state's clients or supporters. This encouraged pacification, led to the formation of police forces, and provided protection as a state service.
3. War making and military expansion would not be possible without extracting resources from the population and accumulating capital. Historically, this led to the establishment of fiscal and accounting institutions to collect taxes from the population to fuel war.
4. وأخيرًا، طالب السكان، الذين أدت مقاومتهم للحرب وإقامة الدولة، بإنشاء محاكم وضمانات للحقوق ومؤسسات تمثيلية، مما دفع الدولة إلى تقديم تنازلات. وقد مكّن هذا السكان من حماية ممتلكاتهم الفردية دون السماح لهم باستخدام القوة، الأمر الذي من شأنه أن يُضعف احتكار الدولة للعنف.

كان شن الحروب وما تلاها من استخراج وحماية وبناء للدولة مترابطة. ويجادل تيلي في نهاية المطاف بأن التفاعلات بين هذه العمليات الأربع أثرت على تجربة بناء الدولة الأوروبية الكلاسيكية. ^{[ 64 ]}

منذ أواخر القرن التاسع عشر، بدأ الباحثون يفترضون أن الحرب ستؤدي في نهاية المطاف إلى تشكيل دولة عالمية. توقع كانغ يووي عام 1885 وجورج فاشر دي لابوج عام 1899 حروبًا عالمية وتوحيد العالم تحت قيادة قوة منتصرة. ^{[ 65 ] [ 66 ]} وصف هربرت ويلز ، في روايته " العالم المتحرر" التي كُتبت خلال الحرب العالمية الأولى، حربًا خيضت باستخدام "القنابل الذرية". وشكّل الناجون دولة عالمية لوضع حد للدول "التي لا شفاء من غزوها للحروب". ^{[ 67 ]} وتنبأ أوزوالد شبنغلر في كتابه "انحطاط الغرب" بتأسيس حكومة عالمية من قبل عرق منتصر في غضون جيلين (من عام 1922). ^{[ 68 ]}

خلال الحرب العالمية الثانية، خلص بعض علماء السياسة إلى أن الحرب الأخيرة قد بدأت وستنتهي بظهور الدولة العالمية. والآن، كما كتب ديرونت ويتلسي، بدأ التوطيد. ^{[ 69 ]} أما روبرت شتراوس-هوبي، فرأى أنه لا نهاية للحرب حتى تُخضع دولة واحدة جميع الدول الأخرى وتُحقق الدولة العالمية. ولم يشك في أن هذه هي المرحلة النهائية المنطقية في نظرية التطور الجيوسياسي. ^{[ 70 ]} ورأى جون هـ. هيرتز أن الهيمنة العالمية أو سيطرة قوة واحدة على العالم ستكون النتيجة النهائية للحرب الدائرة. ^{[ 71 ]} وافترض لودفيج ديهيو أن المعنى الأعمق للحرب العالمية التي شهدها جيله هو أعظم تقارب سياسي عالمي على مر التاريخ. تمر الدولة العالمية بمخاض الولادة. ^{[ 72 ] [ 73 ]}

For the founder of the Paneuropean Union, Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi, the American postwar air superiority would establish Pax Americana which would be an intermediate stage toward the world state.^[74] In his famous The Anatomy of Peace, Emery Reves proclaimed the last phase of the struggle for the conquest of the world. Unless we establish world government in democratic way, which is improbable due human blindness, the "iron law" of history would compel us to wage wars until world empire is finally attained through conquest. A victorious power would conquer and rule the world.^[75]

The advent of the nuclear age did not have an immediate overwhelming impact. Reves added a postscript to his Anatomy of Peace published a few weeks before the bombing of Hiroshima where he noted that the new physical fact changes nothing in the political situation. The next war would form the world state.^[76]Albert Einstein,^[77]Bertrand Russell,^[78]Georgy Fedotov,^[79] and Reinhold Niebuhr^[80] believed that, unless world government is established by agreement, an imperial world state would come by war or wars, and the three latter were even less optimistic regarding the option of agreement.

Originally drafted as a secret study for the Office of Strategic Services (the precursor of the CIA) in 1944 and published as a book three years later, The Struggle for the World by James Burnham concludes that the introduction of atomic weapons works in the same direction and with greater magnitude. These weapons make a world state inevitable and imminent.^[81] In the first nuclear decade, Crane Brinton,^[82]Hans Morgenthau,^[83] and Arnold J. Toynbee^[84][85] theorized on the subject of World War III leading to world state.

The expectation of war forming world state waned during the latter half of the Cold War. The subject became considered unthinkable. Yet one professional historian, Max Ostrovsky, held the view even in the post-Cold War period. He recognized the possibility of total annihilation but also the possibility of survival and recovery, and considered the second possibility too. The five-millennia old Narmer Palette, he says, recorded the first case of state formation and its universal method. By his mace, Narmer wielded the earliest known state. The heavy mace of the Pentagon is about to form the next, and the first global, state. All the casualties of wars in history, as well as all the victims of autocracies established with the main purpose to wage wars more effectively, mean only this: by some natural laws, mankind was pre-destined to form a single world state but failed to find any way to accomplish this goal besides war.^[86]